Week 12 Accuracy Recap: 85.0% When Confidence Is High
· 3 min read
weekly-recap
The Headline: Confidence Matters
When our AI is confident, it delivers. Here's accuracy by confidence threshold:
| Confidence Threshold | Correct | Total | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|
| All predictions | 48 | 93 | 51.6% |
| ≥ 65% confidence | 30 | 49 | 61.2% |
| ≥ 70% confidence | 26 | 37 | 70.3% |
| ≥ 75% confidence | 17 | 20 | 85.0% |
The confidence score isn't just a number — it's a genuine signal of prediction quality.
Full Breakdown by League
| League | Correct | Total | Accuracy |
|---|---|---|---|
| 🇵🇹 Primeira Liga | 5 | 7 | 71.4% |
| ⭐ Champions League | 5 | 8 | 62.5% |
| 🇫🇷 Ligue 1 | 5 | 8 | 62.5% |
| 🇹🇷 Süper Lig | 8 | 13 | 61.5% |
| 🇮🇹 Serie A | 6 | 10 | 60.0% |
| 🇳🇱 Eredivisie | 5 | 9 | 55.6% |
| 🇪🇸 La Liga | 5 | 10 | 50.0% |
| 🇩🇪 Bundesliga | 4 | 9 | 44.4% |
| 🏴 Premier League | 3 | 10 | 30.0% |
| 🟠 Europa League | 2 | 9 | 22.2% |
| Overall | 48 | 93 | 51.6% |
Best Calls ✓
- Arouca 1-2 Benfica — 92.00% confidence, correctly predicted away win.
- Fenerbahçe 4-1 Gaziantep — 87.00% confidence, correctly predicted home win.
- FC Porto 3-0 Moreirense — 87.00% confidence, correctly predicted home win.
- Barcelona 7-2 Newcastle United — 85.00% confidence, correctly predicted home win.
- Trabzonspor 1-0 Rizespor — 83.00% confidence, correctly predicted home win.
Biggest Misses ✗
- Fatih Karagümrük 2-0 Fenerbahçe — Predicted away win at 92.00% confidence, but it was a home win.
- Liverpool 1-1 Tottenham Hotspur — Predicted home win at 78.00% confidence, but it was a draw.
- West Ham United 1-1 Manchester City — Predicted away win at 78.00% confidence, but it was a draw.
- Tottenham Hotspur 3-2 Atlético Madrid — Predicted away win at 72.00% confidence, but it was a home win.
- İstanbul Başakşehir 0-0 Antalyaspor — Predicted home win at 72.00% confidence, but it was a draw.
Draw Analysis
- Matches ending in draws: 22
- Times we predicted a draw: 5
- Correct draw predictions: 3
Draws remain a challenge for the model — they're inherently harder to predict, but we're working on improving this.
Check out the upcoming predictions and browse past results to see the full picture.
All predictions are for entertainment purposes only.